Syria: Fragmentation, Conflicts and the Kurdish Future in Syria

Talking about Syria today is like trying to read a map that has been erased and redrawn ten times in ten years. This country, once considered a pillar of Arab nationalism, has become a field of religious, political, and military fractures. Syria's recent history is one of implosion. And at the center of this implosion are several key elements: the country's religious mosaic, the Islamic State, the Kurds and the Kurdish future in Syria, and foreign powers.

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A shattered religious mosaic

Syria is far from a homogeneous country. Although the majority of the population is Sunni Muslim, there are a multitude of other groups: Alawites, Christians (Greek Orthodox, Assyrians, etc.), Druze, Shiites, and of course the Kurds, who are Sunni Muslims but ethnically distinct.

For decades, power was concentrated in the hands of the Alawite minority, notably through the Assad dynasty. But since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024 , the country has entered a new phase. A transitional government was established in 2025, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa , with the support of some opposition groups, regional representatives, and under international scrutiny.

The Emergence and Terror of the Islamic State

When the Islamic State (ISIS) emerged, it took advantage of the vacuum. The political vacuum, the military vacuum, the ideological vacuum. They succeeded in imposing their ultra-radical vision on entire areas of northern and eastern Syria. Raqqa became their "capital." Public executions, destruction of heritage, systematic rape, and a policy of terror marked this dark period.

But if ISIS was able to establish itself, it was also because no one really controlled these areas. And that's where the Kurds come in.

The Kurds: From Marginalized Minority to Central Force

Long ignored and often oppressed, many of Syria's Kurds did not even have nationality before the war. But with the collapse of the state in some regions, they began to organize.

The YPG (People's Protection Units) established itself as a defensive, then offensive, militia. Alongside them, the YPJ , the Women's Protection Units, surprised the entire world with their courage and discipline.

These forces were the first to push back Daesh, notably in Kobane, with US air support. Gradually, they took control of a vast territory in northeastern Syria, forming what is often called Rojava .

Today, these Kurdish-administered regions are virtually autonomous . They have a structured army , a local political system , civil institutions , and even a school and university network that is beginning to be recognized beyond its borders. Multilingual schools, universities, and local governance are being established with a strong representation of women and a desire for ethnic coexistence.

New political balances and foreign influences

Since the fall of the Assad regime, Russia has maintained a military presence to secure its strategic interests in the Mediterranean, while de facto recognizing the new interim government.

The United States continues to support the Kurds, viewing them as a vital bulwark against a return of Daesh. But their position remains delicate vis-à-vis Turkey, which considers the YPG a branch of the PKK and continues its military operations on the Syrian-Turkish border.

Turkey , despite being a NATO member, remains in direct opposition to Kurdish autonomy plans. It is attempting to control certain border areas while preventing international recognition of Rojava.

Iran , for its part, is reorienting its alliances and trying to maintain influence through Shiite militias and proxies. The Gulf countries are relaunching their investments to participate in reconstruction, while the European Union is closely monitoring the migration and humanitarian issues.

My vision: a Syrian future with Kurdish colors

Today, Syria is fragmented: between a central transitional authority, a well-structured autonomous Kurdish territory, and areas that are still contested. This is not sustainable in the long term without an inclusive political solution.

But in my view, the Kurds have gained the most legitimacy, respect, and organization. They have shown they can govern, protect, and confront extreme threats. Their progressive political model, their inclusion of women, and their resilience make them one of the most serious political forces in the country today.

I believe that in the not-too-distant future, the Kurds could become the primary rulers of a new Syria , or at least achieve a fully recognized and stable federated region. It won't be easy. It will still be fraught with conflict. But it will likely be the foundation for a more just future in a shattered region.